Mangaung ANC shuts out DA and FF Plus: its routes to 51 seats

The ANC in Mangaung has started coalition talks with every party in the new council except the DA and the FF Plus, News24 reported on Thursday. The party wants to keep control of the Bloemfontein metro through a coalition.

That leaves the ANC with 35 of the council's 101 seats and a need for 16 more to reach the 51 that make a majority (Rateweb, from IEC results files).

How many seats are left once the DA and FF Plus are out?

Source: Rateweb, from IEC results files. The one-seat parties are the National Service Delivery Forum, ATM, African Cultural Identity Movement, MK Party, Afrikan Alliance of Social Democrats, Mangaung Seven People's Voice, AIC and ACDP.

So the parties in the ANC's talks hold 61 seats between them. That is 10 more than a majority, but only if almost all of them say yes.

Which ANC deals reach 51?

By Reported's calculation from the seat totals above:

Source: seat totals from Rateweb.

The EFF's nine seats are the easiest way to 51. Without them, the ANC would need the PA, ActionSA, the SACP and every one of the eight one-seat parties, with only one seat to spare.

Every working route has little room. If one partner walks away or one councillor stays out of a vote, most of these deals drop below 51.

Why is the gap so tight?

The ANC lost its Mangaung majority in this election. After a recount in Ward 19 gave the DA an extra seat, the two parties are one seat apart, at 35 for the ANC and 34 for the DA (SABC News; Rateweb).

All 35 ANC seats are wards, so it got no PR seats. Reported's earlier Mangaung coalition maths sets out the DA's routes as well.

What happens next?

Talks are still under way and no deal has been announced. The new council will elect a speaker and an executive mayor at its first sitting, and a coalition needs 51 votes to be sure of winning those and passing budgets later. Reported has explained the deadline for first council meetings and what happens in a hung council.