South Africa's inflation rose to 4.5% in September 2026: what it means
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South Africa's annual consumer inflation was 4.5% in September 2026, up from 4.4% in August, and prices rose 0.4% during the month (Stats SA). That was lower than the 4.7% median forecast of 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg (Moneyweb/Bloomberg).
What pushed inflation up in September?
Transport. Transport prices were 10.8% higher than a year ago and added 1.5 percentage points to the 4.5% rate (Stats SA). Between January and September, petrol rose by R6.13 a litre and 500ppm diesel by R10.66 a litre (IOL).
The other big contributors were housing and utilities (up 5.2%, adding 1.3 points) and insurance and financial services (up 5.4%, adding 0.6 of a point) (Stats SA).
Did food prices go up?
Barely. Food and non-alcoholic beverages were 1.2% more expensive than a year ago and 0.1% cheaper than in August (Stats SA).
Are goods or services rising faster?
Services, but the gap has narrowed. Goods inflation rose to 4.1% from 3.3% in August, while services inflation eased to 4.9% from 5.1% (Stats SA). Rental inflation slowed from 4.1% to 3.9% (IOL).
Will inflation keep rising?
Probably for a few more months. Fuel prices hit a record in October and are set to rise again in November (Moneyweb/Bloomberg). PSG senior economist Johann Els expects inflation slightly above 5% in October and November, then falling from around April 2027, possibly back near 3% in the second half of 2027 depending on oil prices (IOL).
What does this mean for interest rates?
The Reserve Bank raised the repo rate by a quarter point to 7.25% last month and says it remains committed to getting inflation back to its 3% target (Moneyweb/Bloomberg). Forward-rate agreements are pricing in two more rate hikes over the next year (Moneyweb/Bloomberg).
FAQ
What is South Africa's inflation rate for September 2026?
Stats SA says annual consumer inflation was 4.5% in September 2026, up from 4.4% in August.
Why did inflation rise in September 2026?
Mainly transport costs. Transport prices were up 10.8% year on year and added 1.5 percentage points to inflation, driven by higher fuel prices.
Are food prices rising in South Africa?
Only slightly. Food and non-alcoholic beverages were 1.2% more expensive than a year earlier and 0.1% cheaper than in August 2026.
Will interest rates go up again?
Possibly. The Reserve Bank raised the repo rate to 7.25% in September, and forward-rate agreements are pricing in two more hikes over the next year.
When will inflation come down?
PSG's Johann Els expects inflation slightly above 5% in October and November, then falling from around April 2027, possibly near 3% in the second half of 2027.