Another rate hike on 19 November? Here's what it would cost your bond

The Reserve Bank's next interest rate decision is on Thursday, 19 November, and economists can't agree whether it will hike again or hold. The repo rate is 7.25% and prime is 10.75% after September's 25 basis point increase (SARB).

If the bank hikes by another 25 points, prime goes to 11%. On a R1.5 million, 20-year home loan that adds about R254 a month to the repayment.

When is the next interest rate announcement?

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announces its decision on 19 November 2026 (SARB). It is the last MPC meeting of the year, so whatever it decides is the rate you'll carry into 2027 (bond.co.za).

In September the committee raised the rate by 25 points to 7.25%, effective 25 September. The decision was unanimous, and the committee said it saw upside risks to inflation as the fuel price shock intensified (SARB).

Why are economists split?

Nedbank still expects a 25 point hike in November. It has lowered its inflation forecast after the mini budget's fuel levy cut, and now sees inflation peaking at 5.7% in October, but says higher fuel prices could feed into other prices (BusinessTech).

Others lean towards a hold. Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop said market indications suggest the Reserve Bank won't hike, and Old Mutual's Izak Odendaal said further increases are "probably unnecessary and unlikely" (BusinessTech). The Reserve Bank's own forecast model has the rate broadly stable for the rest of the year (BusinessTech).

Of seven published views tracked by bond.co.za, three call or flag the risk of a hike and four point to rates staying put. None expects a cut (bond.co.za).

What is pushing inflation up?

Fuel. Headline inflation rose to 4.5% in September from 4.4% in August, with transport up 10.8% year on year, the biggest contributor (Stats SA). Fuel prices were 27.9% higher than a year earlier (BER).

The temporary fuel levy cut of R1.50 a litre on petrol and R3 a litre on diesel (SAnews) is expected to bring pump prices down in November, which is why some forecasts have cooled (BusinessTech). The Reserve Bank targets 3% inflation.

What would a hike cost you?

These are Reported's calculations for a standard 20-year home loan at prime, comparing 10.75% with 11%:

• R1 million bond: about R10,152 a month now, about R10,322 after a hike (R170 more)
• R1.5 million bond: about R15,228 now, about R15,483 after a hike (R254 more)
• R2 million bond: about R20,305 now, about R20,644 after a hike (R339 more)

Your own rate may be above or below prime, so check your bank statement or app for the rate you actually pay. A hold would leave repayments where they are.

When could rates come down?

Not this year, on current forecasts. The Reserve Bank's September forecast has the repo rate averaging 6.34% in 2027, which implies cuts during the year (bond.co.za). Odendaal said the repo rate could eventually settle around 5.5% to 6% if inflation anchors at 3% (BusinessTech).