Diesel set to fall R1.65 a litre on 4 November. Petrol barely moves

Diesel is on course to drop by about R1.65 a litre on Wednesday, 4 November, but petrol 95 looks set to fall by only about 30c, according to the latest Central Energy Fund (CEF) data, dated 23 October (CEF).

Without the temporary fuel levy cut announced in the mid-term budget, both fuels would be heading for another increase. Paraffin, which gets no levy relief, is tracking a rise of almost R2.90 a litre.

These are indications, not final prices. The official November prices are announced a few days before they take effect.

How much could fuel cost from 4 November?

The CEF's average figures for 2 to 23 October show petrol and diesel under-recovering, which normally means a price hike (CEF). The levy cut of R1.50 a litre on petrol and R3 a litre on diesel (SAnews) more than cancels that out for now.

On those numbers, 95 in Gauteng would go from the current R30.25 to roughly R29.95, and from R29.38 to roughly R29.08 at the coast. Diesel 0.05% would fall from R31.95 to about R30.30 wholesale inland (CEF, SAnews).

Filling a 50-litre tank with 95 would save you about R15. A 60-litre diesel tank would cost roughly R99 less.

Why is petrol barely cheaper when the levy drops R1.50?

Because oil and the rand have pushed the underlying price up by almost as much as the levy relief. On 23 October the CEF used an exchange rate of R16.57 to the dollar (CEF). News24 reported on 23 October that Brent crude had surged to about $114 a barrel after further attacks on Saudi Arabia and on ships in the Strait of Hormuz (News24).

The margin is thin. BusinessTech notes that a weaker rand or a higher oil price could push petrol back into a small increase (BusinessTech).

What else could change the final price?

The slate levy. It tops up the Slate Fund, which pays fuel importers when the regulated price lags what they pay on world markets. The fund was about R10.5 billion in the red at the end of August, and the current 87.66c a litre slate levy may need to rise again, according to News24 (News24). The CEF's daily figures do not include it (BusinessTech).

November's adjustment will be based on CEF data up to Thursday, 29 October (News24).

How long does the levy relief last?

Two stages, announced by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana on 21 October (SAnews):

• 4 November to 1 December 2026: R1.50 a litre off petrol, R3 off diesel.
• Until 5 January 2027: R1 a litre off petrol, R1.50 off diesel.

The R10 billion package is paid for by returning money that had been transferred to the Central Energy Fund to the National Revenue Fund (SAnews). When it ends, the full levy comes back.

Who gains most?

Diesel users. Farmers, transport firms and anyone with a diesel bakkie or SUV stand to benefit the most, and about 80% of consumer goods move by road, News24 notes (News24).

For petrol drivers, the relief barely dents this year's increases. BusinessTech calculates that 95 inland has risen by R10.15 a litre in monthly adjustments since March (BusinessTech).