Maize plantings fall to a 2019 low. What it means for your mealie meal
Farmers plan to plant 12.4% less maize this summer, with white maize down 18.2%. Record stocks mean no immediate price shock, but a drought could lift food prices from early 2027.
South Africa's commercial farmers plan to plant 2.387 million hectares of maize this summer, 12.4% less than last season and the smallest area since 2019, according to the Crop Estimates Committee's first planting intentions report for 2026/27 (The National, Moneyweb).
White maize, the kind milled into the mealie meal most households buy, takes the biggest cut. Yellow maize, used mainly for animal feed, drops only slightly.
How big is the cut?
| Crop | Planned area 2026/27 | Change from last season |
|---|---|---|
| All maize | 2.387 million ha | Down 337,000 ha (12.4%) |
| White maize | 1.370 million ha | Down 304,500 ha (18.2%) |
| Yellow maize | 1.017 million ha | Down 32,500 ha (3.1%) |
Source: Crop Estimates Committee figures as reported by The National.
Across all summer grains and oilseeds, farmers intend to plant about 4.5 million hectares, only 2% less than last season and in line with the five-year average, says Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo (Wandile Sihlobo). Much of the land is moving to sunflower, where plantings are expected to rise by about 45% (The National).
Why are farmers planting less maize?
Costs and weather. Fuel and fertiliser make up about half of a farmer's input costs, and both have jumped because of the US-Iran war, Sihlobo told Algoa FM (Algoa FM). Farmers are also bracing for an El Niño drought, and the current heatwave has made some pause planting while they assess conditions (Algoa FM).
Will mealie meal cost more?
Not right away. South Africa is coming off its biggest maize crop on record, estimated at 17.691 million tonnes (The National). The country started the season with more than two million tonnes in stock against yearly use of about 12 million tonnes, and Sihlobo says there is no need to panic for now (Algoa FM).
He expects food inflation to stay contained into the first quarter of 2027. The crop being planted now matters more from the second quarter (Algoa FM). Food price inflation was 1% in September (Algoa FM).
The risk is a drought. Sihlobo warned that a dry El Niño summer could push food inflation up by the end of the first quarter of 2027, which could in turn affect interest rates (Moneyweb). The Reserve Bank has said it will act to stop higher fuel and El Niño-related food prices from feeding into inflation expectations (Moneyweb).
When will we know more?
These are intentions, not final numbers. The Crop Estimates Committee releases preliminary data on what was actually planted on 27 January 2027, with the first production estimate for the new crop due in February (Algoa FM, The National).
FAQ
How much maize will South African farmers plant in 2026/27?
About 2.387 million hectares, 12.4% less than last season and the smallest area since 2019, according to the Crop Estimates Committee's planting intentions report.
Why is white maize being cut the most?
White maize plantings are set to fall 18.2% to 1.370 million hectares. Farmers face higher fuel and fertiliser costs and expect an El Niño drought, and many are shifting land to sunflower.
Will mealie meal prices go up?
Not immediately. South Africa has record maize stocks from the 2026 harvest. Agbiz economist Wandile Sihlobo expects food inflation to stay contained into early 2027, but a drought could push prices up from around the second quarter of 2027.
When will the actual planted area be known?
The Crop Estimates Committee releases preliminary planting data on 27 January 2027, followed by production estimates in February.