Treasury puts R10bn aside for El Niño. What a dry summer means for you

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana has raised government's contingency reserve to R10 billion to deal with El Niño and other risks, he said in the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement on 21 October 2026 (gov.za). The money comes out of this year's tax revenue overrun, with the rest earmarked for infrastructure projects still being evaluated (TimesLIVE).

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) expects a very strong El Niño to bring a hotter, drier summer to most of the country (SAnews).

What is the R10 billion for?

It sits in the contingency reserve, which is money Treasury keeps unallocated so it can respond to shocks during the year. Godongwana said the reserve "increases to R10 billion to respond to the potential threats associated with the El Niño and other risks" (gov.za).

The speech does not split the R10 billion into specific programmes. It is a buffer, not a list of projects.

Separately, the Adjustments Appropriation Bill includes R6.2 billion for unforeseeable and unavoidable spending, mostly for disaster relief and rehabilitation (gov.za).

Why is Treasury worried about El Niño?

Godongwana told Parliament that El Niño, together with the conflict in the Middle East, could further weaken growth because of its likely impact on producer costs and output (gov.za).

Agriculture grew 3.5% on strong horticulture and grain harvests, but Treasury expects El Niño to raise costs and cut output from late 2026 into 2027 (TimesLIVE). Treasury now forecasts growth of 1.2% for 2026, down from the 1.6% it projected in February (TimesLIVE).

What weather is SAWS forecasting?

SAWS says below-normal rainfall is the most likely outcome over most of South Africa from October to December 2026, with above-normal temperatures very likely. Its outlook for November 2026 to January 2027 looks much the same (SAnews).

The weather service has warned that the event, combined with global warming, will likely make 2027 the warmest year on record. It pointed back to 2015/16, when a very strong El Niño brought unprecedented heatwaves to the region (SAnews). SAWS also said uncertainty remains about how strong this one will get and what it will do locally.

How could it affect you?

The National Disaster Management Centre lists the main risks as pressure on water supply, crop and livestock losses, heat-related illness, veld fires and strain on health and emergency services (SAnews).

Officials have asked people not to panic. The advice is to follow SAWS warnings through official channels and act quickly when a warning is issued (SAnews).

For farmers, the Department of Agriculture recommends drought-tolerant cultivars, planting within recommended windows, efficient irrigation such as drip systems, and keeping herd sizes within what the veld can carry (SAnews). Irrigation farmers may face water restrictions if rainfall stays low.

Is government doing anything else?

Agriculture Minister Willie Aucamp has promised more frequent early warnings and daily updates on extreme heat (SAnews). The MTBPS also moves R423.4 million within the agriculture department in 2026/27 to contain foot-and-mouth disease, plus a R183 million rollover for vaccines (TimesLIVE).