Petrol could drop R2 in December, but diesel may rise. Here's why
Early CEF data points to petrol 95 falling about R2.07 a litre on 2 December, while diesel could rise about 93c as the fuel levy relief halves. The numbers can still change.
Petrol could drop by about R2 a litre on Wednesday 2 December, but diesel is heading the other way. The first days of Central Energy Fund (CEF) data for the December review point to petrol 95 falling roughly R2.07 a litre and 50ppm diesel rising about 93c, according to a forecast built from CEF's daily reports.
These are very early numbers. Only 2 of the 20 trading days in the review window had been counted, so the final adjustment can still swing a lot before it's announced.
Why would diesel go up when oil costs are easing?
Because the fuel levy relief shrinks on 2 December. Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana cut the general fuel levy by R3 a litre on diesel and R1.50 on petrol from 4 November to 1 December, then by a smaller R1.50 on diesel and R1 on petrol until 5 January 2027 (BusinessTech).
That means diesel gives back R1.50 of relief and petrol 50c in December. The Detail points out that international prices and the rand would have to improve by more than those amounts just for prices to stay flat.
On the basic fuel price alone, the early data shows petrol 95 down about R2.57 and diesel down about 57c. Add the levy coming back and diesel flips to an increase (forecast).
What could you pay from 2 December?
| Fuel, per litre | Now (4 November) | Early forecast change | Possible December price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol 95, Gauteng pump | R30.24 | down R2.07 | about R28.17 |
| Petrol 93, Gauteng pump | R29.87 | down R2.07 | about R27.80 |
| Diesel 500ppm, wholesale | R30.86 | up 93c | about R31.79 |
| Diesel 50ppm, wholesale | R31.60 | up 63c | about R32.23 |
| Illuminating paraffin, max retail | R35.48 | down R1.49 | about R33.99 |
Sources: current prices from the Fuels Industry Association and IOL; forecast from CEF-based daily tracking. The forecast excludes any slate levy change.
On a 50-litre tank of 95 inland, a R2.07 cut would save about R103.50 at the pump, if it holds.
What else could change the number?
The slate levy. In November the department raised it by 48c, from 87.66c to 135.84c a litre, which wiped out most of the expected petrol cut (BusinessDay). Month-end data had pointed to petrol falling around 50c, but it ended up dropping only 1c (IOL). A similar move in December would shrink any saving.
Oil prices and the rand also matter. The Detail notes that talks on reopening shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could lower international fuel costs, and 2 December is the first review that would capture a sustained fall (The Detail).
When will the official December price be announced?
The review period runs from 30 October to 26 November (forecast). The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources usually announces the adjustment a day or two before it takes effect, so expect official figures around the start of December. Diesel's retail price is deregulated, so what you pay for diesel at a given station can differ from the wholesale figure (The Detail).
FAQ
When is the next fuel price change in South Africa?
The next adjustment takes effect on Wednesday 2 December 2026.
Will diesel go up in December 2026?
Early CEF data suggests 50ppm diesel could rise about 93c a litre, mainly because the fuel levy relief on diesel drops from R3 to R1.50. It's an early estimate and can change.
How long does the fuel levy relief last?
R1.50 off petrol and R3 off diesel runs from 4 November to 1 December 2026, then R1 off petrol and R1.50 off diesel until 5 January 2027.